The Indian stock market is crazy!
On June 27, in the context of collective adjustments in the Asia -Pacific market, the Indian stock market reached a new high.As of the close of the day, the Indian Sensex30 Index rose 0.72%to 79243.18 points, a record high in three consecutive trading days.Since the beginning of this year, the Indian Sensex30 Index has risen by nearly 10%, and from 2016 to 2023, the index has risen eight consecutive years.
The latest data shows that as of June 25, foreign investment has bought Indian stocks for 12 consecutive trading days, and the amount of purchase has reached 3.7 billion US dollars during this period.
However, a few days ago, Moody’s internationally renowned rating agency Moodya issued a warning saying that severe water shortage could affect Indian sovereign credit rating.If the water crisis damages agriculture and industry, India may even have social turmoil.
Recently, the Indian stock market continued to sing high. On June 27, the main stock indexes of the Indian stock market reached a record high again.On the same day, the closing of the Indian Sensex30 index rose 0.72%to 79243.18 points, a record high in three consecutive trading days.In terms of individual stocks, India’s largest cement manufacturer Ultratech CEMENT’s stock price rose more than 5%, Tata Consulting and Indocens technology rose by more than 2%; Bazi Telecom rose 1.63%, a record high;India United Lahua rose 0.65%.
In early June, the results of the Indian election showed that Indian Prime Minister Modi won the third term, but his leadership’s ruling alliance lost its parliament for the first time since 2014.Modi’s "although the victory and defeat" election aroused people’s concerns about the continuity of the policy, which led to a large amount of capital outflow.The Indian stock market’s capital outflow this year once reached $ 4.8 billion.
With the new alliance led by Modi promised to maintain the continuity of the policy, investors’ concerns quickly dissipated, foreign investors resumed their purchases again, and strong domestic funds inflow further boosted the valuation of India, which was already expensive.stock market.Data show that as of June 25, overseas investors have bought Indian stocks for 12 consecutive trading days.From June 7th to June 25th, as India’s domestic policy continuity has decreased, overseas investors have invested $ 3.7 billion in Indian stocks.Overseas investors last lasting for a long -term purchase boom last 26 days until June 2, 2023.
Rajeev de Mello, chief investment officer of GAMA Asset Management Company, said that some news from the new Indian government, including departmental distribution and implied that the policy will remain continuous.These signs have eliminated foreign investors’ concerns about the weakening of government authorization.
"MEHTA Equities Senior Vice President Prashanth Tapse said:" Before the next month’s trade union budget, investors were conducting a lot of bullish bets, which once again triggered a major rebound and pushed the two benchmark indexes of the Indian stock market to a record high in history."" "Bangalore Wealth Management
Some analysts pointed out that with the help of strong economic, policy continuity and the return of foreign investors, India’s benchmark stock index is expected to set the best monthly increase since this year.
At the same time, the Indian bond market has also ushered in a good newsChennai Stock. From June 28, Indian government bonds will be officially included in the GBI-EM of Morgan Chase Emerging Markets.Enter the Indian bond market.
Morgan Stanley said that investors who tracked Morgan Chase’s emerging market bond index have been prepared for India’s joining. As of the end of May, their 3.6%of their assets have been allocated on India’s sovereign debt.
At present, India’s weight in JP Morgan’s Emerging Market Bond Index accounts for about 1%, and plans to gradually rise to 10%in 10 months.Mon Dai, the director of macroeconomic strategy of Morgan Stanley, wrote in a report on Friday that if India maintains the stability of the rupee, maintains a strong monetary policy position, and the budget deficit is moderate, investors may increase their holdings by 1% -2%.He pointed out that this means that investors still need to increase assets by 8%-9%in India in the next 10 months.
Since Morgan Chase announced the incorporation of Indian government bonds in its index last September, India has attracted $ 10 billion in bonds in accordance with the index conditionsSurat Stock. Morgan Datong said that the above incident may attract global funds of $ 20 billion to US $ 25 billion.Morgan Chase also estimates that in the next 12 months, the proportion of foreign investment in the Indian bond market will be doubled from the current 2.5%to more than 4.4%.
However, the current India is also facing some problems, and the water crisis is one of them.
Recently, the international rating agency Moody’s warning said that severe water shortage could affect Indian sovereign credit rating.If the water crisis damages agriculture and industry, India may even have social turmoil.
India’s water supply mainly depends on the wind and rain, but it is also prone to harsh and extreme weather conditions.Moody’s emphasized that industries that rely on water such as coal generators and steel manufacturers will be severely hit, and explain that operation interruptions will hinder income growth and weaken credit strength.
On June 25, Moody’s report wrote in his report that industrialization and urbanization superimposed economic development caused a serious shortage of water resources in India, and extreme weather such as heat waves and droughts exacerbated the phenomenon of water shortage.This may drag India’s sovereign credit rating.Moody’s outlook on India’s existing "BAA3" credit rating.
India is the world’s largest milk and spice producer, or the world’s second largest rice, wheat, vegetables, fruits and cotton producers.Agricultural water accounts for 90%of Indian water resources.
Moody’s warning said that water shortage may interrupt agricultural production and industrial operations, leading to rising food prices, and affected enterprises and workers, especially farmers’ income, and cause social turmoil.In view of the employment of more than 40%of India’s labor force, this in turn will exacerbate the fluctuations of Indian economic growth and weaken the ability of economic resistance to impact.
Moody’s said that from the perspective of the industrial field, coal -fired power generation and steel companies were the most affected by water shortage.Investment in water resources infrastructure and renewable energy is expected to alleviate these risks and improve the efficiency of water resource utilization.
(Yue Niu News Comprehensive Securities Times)Guoabong Investment
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