The historic rotation of U.S. stocks has begun, and Gao Gao’s advanced technology stocks have encountered Waterloo again this week.
On July 24th (Wednesday) local time, the US stock technology "seven giants" including Googy, AAPL.US, Microsoft (MSFT.US), and Meta (Meta.us) encountered "to" to "to the endSimmers ", a single -day market value evaporated by 768 billion US dollars, the largest single -day decline since October 2022, and it is also the biggest setback of scientific and technological stocks since the ChatGPT detonated AI market.The Nasdaq Composite Index, which is mainly technology stocks, also plummeted by more than 3.6%, the largest single -day decline since the end of 2022.
From the perspective of the week’s performance, the "Seven Giants" fell across the board this week, and the total market value has shrunk by about $ 2 trillion since July 10.In fact, before the sale of this round, the analysis of the AI "bubble theory" has been heating up in the market. Many investment banks throw out empty remarks and question whether the large -scale investment in the AI field can bring corresponding returns in the future.
The second quarter financial report released by Google’s parent company Alphabet confirms Wall Street concerns."Daily Economic News" reporter sorted out the income of Google Cloud business and search business, and found that in the past year, the income growth of these two AI related businesses has not continued to rise steadily, and the growth rate cannot match Google’s investment in research and development in research and development.EssenceTherefore, despite its performance better than expected, Google closed down by 5%on the 24th, the worst performance in the six months, and fell nearly 3%the next day.
The rare felling of "Seven Giants" may become a testimony of a new turning point under the AI wave.Next week, technology giants such as Microsoft, Apple, Meta, etcAgra Investment. will focus on their financial reports, and the market may face greater tests.
Performance of Google Financial Report: It is difficult to match huge expenditure in AI business growth
For Wall Street investors, July 24, local time, is the most thrilling trading day to the present to the present: Driven by Tesla’s deep decline in Tesla’s poor performance in the second quarter of this year, the US stocks that have been singing in the past two years "SevenThe giant "" overall "the largest single -day decline since October 2022, officially fell into a 10%callback range, and the US stock market evaporated market value by more than 1.1 trillion US dollars throughout the day.Among them, Tesla’s closure of over 12%, Apple fell the smallest, about 2.9%.
On the same day, the S & P 500 fell more than 2%, the Nasdaq comprehensive index fell more than 3.6%, and the two major indexes set the largest single -day decline since the end of 2022.
The reason for the "robbery" of scientific and technological stocks is that the market realized that this vigorous AI narrative, although accompanied by high costs and inputs, and lasted for nearly two years, it seems that it has not found a path.Realize the income that matches the input.
After the US stock market on July 23, Google’s parent company Alphabet released the second quarter of this year’s financial reportMumbai Stock Exchange. Its search and cloud business growth was good, but the advertising revenue of YouTube video platform was less than expected.In addition, Google’s expected expenses in the third quarter will grow further, leading to investors’ concerns about its future profit margin.More importantly, the benefits of the AI department disappointed Wall Street again.As of the closing of US stocks on the same day, Google fell sharply by more than 5%.
Every reporter noticed that Google’s main business is divided into Google Search, YouTube Advertising, Google Service, Google Cloud, etc. The search business and cloud business are closely related to AI.Jaipur Investment
After carefully splitting the income in recent quarters and comparing the quarterly research and development expenditure, the reporter found that in the past year, the income growth of Google Cloud business and search business has not continued to rise steadily, and the growth rate of growth rateIt is far from the increase in R & D in terms of research and development.
According to foreign media reports, Alphabet invested 2.2 billion US dollars in DeepMind and Google search department in the second quarter of this year to build an AI model. This number is higher than US $ 1.1 billion in the same period last year.The income is still unknown.
Although Alphabet did not disclose the specific proportion of AI R & D investment in the financial report, a recent environmental report released by Google revealed the scale of its AI investment.In 2023, in order to expand the AI data center, the company’s carbon dioxide emissions increased by 13%from 2022.Varanasi Wealth Management
Not only that, Alphabet plans to invest at least 12 billion US dollars per quarter by the end of 2025, even if this may affect profit margins.Google CEO Sandal Picchai emphasized at the financial report call that the risk of insufficient investment is far greater than the risk of excessive investment.
In addition to Google, OPENAI has also been exposed by foreign media that it may lose $ 5 billion this year.The company’s annual revenue is estimated to be between 3.5 billion US dollars and $ 4.5 billion, but the total cost may be as high as US $ 8.5 billion.
Goldman Sachs analyzed a large amount of investment in AI infrastructure in a report in a report on June 27, including investment in data centers, chips and other artificial intelligence infrastructure and power grids.However, so far, these investments have hardly shown significant results.
The partner of Sequoia Capital, David Cahn, also pointed out that the technology industry needs to create an annual income of about $ 600 billion to make up for all the current investment in AI, but this number is currently far.
"AI Bubble" accelerate?Wall Street Debate
As a giant leading the wave of AI, the challenges of Google and OpenAI in AI income have also exacerbated Wall Street’s concerns about whether AI can become a growth driving force.
Every reporter noticed that before the market was adjusted sharply, the "AI Bubble Theory" had already existed for some time.Some people believe that the rapid development of AI has spawned a bubble, which has brought $ 9 trillion in value -added to the S & P 500 index in the past year.
Earlier this year, Morgan Stanley issued a warning, pointing out that the strong performance of the stock market at the end of 2023 has pushed the stock valuation to the level that may not be maintained.The current price -earnings ratio expectations and low -equity risk premium indicate that investors face limited uplink space and increase risk.
According to data from the London Stock Exchange, the P / E ratio of the S & P 500 Index has been close to 22 times that of the expected income, which is the highest level of more than two years, which is much higher than the average level (18 times) in the past 10 years.Although the plunge of the "seven giants" on Wednesday may not be the beginning of the burst of bubbles, huge declines are intensifying investors’ concerns.
According to Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs, hedge funds have been reducing the opening of US stocks in the past two weeks because they are worried that the emotional changes around technology stocks may be wiped out their earlier earnings this year.Morgan Stanley said on July 25 that the computer -driven macro -hedging fund strategy sold a $ 20 billion stock on Wednesday and is expected to sell at least $ 25 billion in the next week, which is one of the largest risk -up incidents in the past ten years.
Under the acceleration of scientific and technological stocks, the change in market sentiment is also one of the possible factors for the recent decline in the market.Last week, the demand for Nvidia’s options exceeded the options, reaching a high point in the past five months.In addition, some analysts believe that the recent anti -winds of technology stocks are that the Federal Reserve has expected interest rate cuts to rise rapidly, and accelerate the flow of funds out of US stocks.
However, in the eyes of other analysts, the market’s response is excessive, and more short -term fluctuations.They believe that in the next US stock financial report season, Wall Street will better digest the performance of technology giants and a wider range of AI technology development trends.
"Although investors may be worried about the large -scale tide of expenditure, and they are frustrating to the profit growth rate or profit margin that these huge investment will bring … We strongly oppose this pessimistic view, because this expenditure is strongThe wave further confirmed the actual existence of the AI revolution.
Wedbush also reiterated its optimistic rise in American technology stocks, and once again expected that the Nasdaq comprehensive index with technology stocks as the core will rise by 15%to 20%by the end of this year.
Truist chief investment officer also expressed a similar point of view. He wrote in the report: "Although technology stocks are recovering after the two -month performance of the most powerful two -month performance since 2022, the long -term bull market is expected to remain complete."
Dan Coatsworth, an investment analyst of the investment platform company AJ Bell, believes that next week, Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Amazon will release their performance one after another. Nvidia will announce the financial report at the end of August.It is necessary to adjust.
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